Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. They writes two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got something to gain from the other's positions."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
